As diplomats prepare for the final round of UN Global Plastics Treaty negotiations in Geneva, the biggest question mark hovering over the talks is what position America will actually take. The US approach to plastic pollution has shifted dramatically throughout the negotiation process, leaving businesses, environmental groups, and international partners guessing where the world’s largest economy will ultimately land.

The uncertainty stems from America’s evolving stance over the past two years. Initially, US negotiators focused almost exclusively on waste management and recycling solutions, avoiding production limits. Then, in a surprising 2024 pivot, the Biden administration embraced restrictions on plastic production—only to later scrap this position. Rumors circulated that the US delegation might not even attend negotiations. While unlikely, deep pessimism surrounding their potential contribution remains.

What’s more, Trump’s track record reflects this uncertainty. Withdrawing from the Paris Accords and recent pro-plastic positions suggest neither multilateral climate agreements nor plastic regulations are favored policy tools for this administration.